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由于分层系统的系统结构复杂,且系统不同层次可靠性信息具有不均衡性的特点,使得分层系统的可靠性建模较为困难.考虑二态情况,通过引入贝叶斯网络描述分层系统元素间的失效关系,并考虑了系统元素间级联失效问题,结合贝叶斯多源信息融合方法,以贝叶斯网络模型为基础整合了系统各层元素的可靠性信息,构成了一种较为通用的二态分层系统可靠性分析方法.算例结果表明:该方法在贝叶斯网络模型计算过程中能够融合系统各层元素可靠性信息并有效处理级联失效问题,提高了系统可靠性后验均值估计的准确性,减小了系统可靠性结论的后验方差.
Due to the complex system structure of hierarchical system and the unevenness of reliability information at different levels of the system, it is difficult to model the reliability of hierarchical system.According to the binary state, the introduction of Bayesian network to describe the hierarchical system Element, and considering the cascading failures between system elements. Combining with the Bayesian multi-source information fusion method, the Bayesian network model is used to integrate the reliability information of the elements in each layer of the system to form a A more general method of reliability analysis of two-state hierarchical system is proposed.Example results show that this method can fuse the reliability information of all layers and effectively deal with the cascading failures in Bayesian network model calculation, and improve the reliability of the system The accuracy of a posteriori mean estimation decreases the posterior variance of the system reliability conclusion.