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在对当前第三代移动通信业务在全球范围的发展现状和在国内的通信市场进行分析的基础上,采用定性的类推预测法和定量的指数平滑法对国内的移动通信市场容量进行预测,同时运用马斯洛需求层次理论对移动通信用户的需求和消费行为进行初步研究。之后通过对3G移动通信业务进行SWOT分析进一步认识其优势、劣势、机会和威胁,最后针对3G移动通信业务中的通信类、信息类、交易类和娱乐类四种类别的业务分别提出中近期的各自的初步发展策略,试图为3G移动通信业务提供一定的发展思路。
Based on the current status of the third generation mobile communication business in the world and the analysis of the domestic communication market, the qualitative quasi-predictive method and the quantitative exponential smoothing method are used to predict the domestic market size of mobile communication, meanwhile, Applying Maslow’s hierarchy of needs to conduct preliminary research on the demand and consumer behavior of mobile communication users. After that, we further understand the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats through the SWOT analysis of 3G mobile communication service. Finally, we propose four kinds of business of communication, information, transaction and entertainment in the 3G mobile communication business respectively. Their respective initial development strategy, trying to provide some 3G mobile communication business development ideas.