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在欧洲,人为气候变化造成的主要影响是极端气候事件的频率和降水量一般都较高。因此,降雨诱发的滑坡事件在增加。但是评价气候变化对滑坡的影响是困难的,因为就一个区域来说,气候变化很大,甚至气候会出现相反的变化情况;此外,不同类型的滑坡是由不同的滑坡机理诱发的。预测气候变化对滑坡影响的一种潜在的方法就是将边坡模型与通过大气循环缩尺模型所获得的气候情况结合起来。讨论了评价的方法、应用的可能性和存在的问题,并给出了法国东南部的一个试验场获得的一些试验结果。
In Europe, the main impact of anthropogenic climate change is the high frequency and precipitation of extreme climate events. As a result, rainfall-induced landslides are on the rise. However, it is difficult to evaluate the impact of climate change on landslides because climate change is very large in one area, and even the climate changes in the opposite direction. In addition, different types of landslides are induced by different landslide mechanisms. One potential way of predicting the effects of climate change on landslides is to combine the slope model with the climatic conditions obtained by scale-scale atmospheric circulation models. The method of evaluation, the possibility of application and the existing problems are discussed. Some experimental results obtained from a test ground in southeastern France are also given.