如何分析当前经济形势并判断其发展趋向,不仅涉及到下半年治理整顿方针的实施,而且对制定“八五”计划具有重要影响。目前,对经济形势存在两种意见。一种意见认为,工业增长速度逐步回升和物价平稳标志着国民经济已经和正在走出低谷。尽管依然面临很多困难,但经济运行中的基本危险已经消除,治理整顿可以告一段落,应当利用目前有利时机,尽快推出改革措施。另一种意见认为,治理整顿初期控制需求总量的目标已经基本实现,但 How to analyze the current economic situation and determine its development trend not only involves the implementation of the guidelines on governance and reorganization in the second half of the year, but also has an important impact on the formulation of the Eighth Five-Year Plan. At present, there are two opinions on the economic situation. According to one opinion, the gradual recovery of industrial growth and steady prices have marked that the national economy is now and is coming out of the doldrums. Although many difficulties still persist, the basic dangers in economic operation have been eliminated. The rectification of governance can come to an end and the current favorable opportunity should be used to launch reform measures as soon as possible. Another view was that the objective of controlling the total amount of demand in the initial stage of rectification and control has been basically achieved, but