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目的探索2004-2011年湖南省居民血吸虫感染的时空特征和变化规律。方法基于2004-2011年湖南省乡(镇)血吸虫病病情数据库,对湖南省居民血吸虫感染的时空特征进行描述与分析。结果 2004-2011年湖南省居民血吸虫感染率由3.0%下降至0.8%,但部分乡(镇)居民血吸虫感染率仍处于较高水平(P_(90)=2.1%),有螺水系沿岸居民血吸虫感染率高于其他地区。全局自相关分析显示,2004-2011年湖南省居民血吸虫感染率Moran’s I指数为0.34~0.53,均高于期望值且具有统计学意义(Z>8.71,P<0.05);局部G统计量热点分析显示,2004-2011年正热点“高-高”聚集乡(镇)主要位于洞庭湖沿岸,聚集乡(镇)数量为30~70个。SaTScan空间扫描发现,2004-2011年聚集区域内血吸虫病流行乡(镇)数为145~183个。结论 2004-2011年湖南省居民血吸虫感染率下降明显,但部分乡(镇)居民血吸虫感染率仍处于较高水平。2004-2011年湖南省居民血吸虫感染率存在明显正向空间自相关和聚集性,正热点“高-高”聚集区域可确定为下一步血吸虫病防治工作的重点。
Objective To explore the spatial and temporal characteristics and changes of schistosoma infection among residents in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2011. Methods Based on the database of schistosomiasis in Hunan (from 2004 to 2011), the spatio-temporal characteristics of schistosoma infection in Hunan were described and analyzed. Results The infection rate of schistosomiasis in Hunan Province decreased from 3.0% to 0.8% from 2004 to 2011, but the prevalence of schistosomiasis was still high in some towns (P_ (90) = 2.1%). Schistosoma japonicum Infection rate is higher than other areas. The global autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran’s I index of residents in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2011 was 0.34 ~ 0.53, which were both higher than the expected values (Z> 8.71, P <0.05). The hot spot analysis of local G statistics showed , 2004-2011 is the hot spot “high - high ” gathered in the township (the town) is mainly located along the banks of Dongting Lake, gathering township (town) number of 30 to 70. The SaTScan space scan found that the number of endemic towns (or townships) for schistosomiasis in the gathering area was 145-183 in 2004-2011. Conclusion The infection rate of schistosomiasis in Hunan Province decreased significantly from 2004 to 2011, but the prevalence of schistosomiasis in some townships was still at a high level. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation and aggregation of the population of Schistosoma japonicum in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2011. The positive hot spot “high-high” accumulation area could be identified as the focus of schistosomiasis control.