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证券市场素有“经济晴雨表”之称,这既表明证券市场是宏观经济的先行指标,也表明宏观经济的走向决定了证券市场的长期趋势。可以说,宏观经济因素是影响证券市场长期走势的唯一因素,其他因素可以暂时改变证券市场的中期和短期走势,但改变不了证券市场的长期走势。本文将从国内生产总值GDP、货币供给量指标M2、国际游资三个因素出发,从理论和实证两方面研究宏观经济对股票价格的影响。
The stock market is known as the “economic barometer,” which not only shows that the securities market is the leading indicator of macro economy, but also shows that the macroeconomic trend determines the long-term trend of the securities market. It can be said that macroeconomic factors are the only factors that affect the long-term trend of the securities market. Other factors can temporarily change the mid-term and short-term trends in the securities market, but they can not change the long-term trend of the securities market. This article will proceed from the three factors of gross domestic product (GDP), money supply index (M2) and international hot money, and study the macroeconomic impact on stock prices from the theoretical and empirical aspects.