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2007年中国宏观经济呈现出稳中略快的增长格局,实际 GDP 增长率略超过潜在增长水平,同时,在食品价格的推动下,通货膨胀率也达到2001年以来的最高点。从总需求的结构看,内需尤其是消费在拉动经济增长中的作用继续下降,贸易顺差将会继续加大,从而使得经济内部失衡和外部失衡问题变得更为突出。在金融形势方面,受股票市场牛市行情的影响,居民的储蓄存款增速持续下降,而企业对银行贷款的依赖程度也在下降,可以预计,随着资本市场的崛起,未来银行业将会越发感受到“脱媒”的压力。受居民资产组合和企业融资结构变化的影响,货币供应量作为货币政策中间目标的价值将会下降。同时,在利率体系依然没有理顺的情况下,货币政策将面临困境。
In 2007, China’s macroeconomy showed a slightly steady growth pattern. The real GDP growth rate slightly exceeded the potential growth. Meanwhile, with the promotion of food prices, the inflation rate reached its highest level since 2001. From the perspective of the structure of aggregate demand, the role of domestic demand, especially consumption, in driving economic growth continues to decline, and the trade surplus will continue to increase, thus making the issue of intra-economy imbalances and external imbalances more prominent. In terms of the financial situation, due to the stock market bull market, the growth of residents’ savings deposits continued to decline, while the dependence of enterprises on bank loans also declined. It is expected that as the capital market rises, the banking industry will grow more prosperous Feel the pressure of “disintermediation.” Affected by changes in resident asset portfolio and corporate financing structure, the value of money supply as an intermediate target of monetary policy will decline. In the meantime, with the interest rate system still not straightened out, monetary policy will face difficulties.