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根据2001～2008年我国渔船在东南太平洋海域的智利竹筴鱼生产统计数据以及同期卫星遥感数据反演的海表温度、叶绿素浓度、海表温度梯度等数据,利用广义可加模型定量分析了智利外海竹筴鱼资源分布同环境因子的关系。根据GAM模型的研究结果,确定海表温度作为竹筴鱼中心渔场预报指标。利用案例推理方法,通过三级相似检索对智利竹筴鱼中心渔场进行预报。试验性预报实例的结果与渔船实际作业情况比较表明,预报精度达到68%,能一定程度上反映竹筴鱼资源的分布。
According to the statistics of production of Chilean pomfret from 2001 to 2008 in the southeast Pacific Ocean and the data of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll concentration and sea surface temperature gradient retrieved by satellite remote sensing data in the same period, the generalized additive model was used to quantitatively analyze the data of Chile Relationship between distribution of mackerel and resources and environmental factors. According to the research results of GAM model, the sea surface temperature is determined as the forecast index of the bamboo fishery center. Using the case-based reasoning method, the fishing ground of Chilean mackerel center was predicted by three-level similarity search. Experimental results of the example and the actual operation of the fishing vessel comparison shows that the forecast accuracy of 68%, to some extent, reflect the distribution of the resources of the mackerel.