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本文通过重点关注出口的作用和空间外部性来研究经济增长的决定因素。文章论述了研究隐含出口生产力水平的最新方法。本文认为,在计算出口生产力水平时需要考虑相关多样化。我们假设相关产业的多样化而非产业本身的多样化促进了俄罗斯地区经济的增长。通过设置相关多样化参数,本文分两步实证检验了出口组合中的相关多样化和空间依赖性对俄罗斯地区经济增长的影响。首先,用三个传统技术进步指标来检验俄罗斯地区经济增长中是否存在空间依赖性。其次,构建了一个简单的理论模型,在该理论模型中假设经济增长是外生决定的并且主要依赖出口的外部性。在模型中空间依赖性由解释变量的空间滞后表示。部门和空间加总后的实证分析显示出口外部性对大多数经济部门中就业增长的影响都是显著为正的。同时,空间上滞后的出口生产率水平对就业增长的作用因部门而异:在工业部门,空间上滞后的出口生产率水平会阻碍就业增长,但在最发达的服务业部门,空间上滞后的出口生产率水平会加速就业增长。
This paper examines the determinants of economic growth by focusing on the role of exports and spatial externality. The article discusses the latest method of studying implied export productivity levels. This paper argues that relevant diversification needs to be considered when calculating the level of export productivity. We assume that the diversification of related industries rather than the diversification of industries themselves has promoted the growth of the economy in the Russian region. By setting relevant diversification parameters, this paper empirically tests the impact of the relevant diversification and spatial dependence in export mix on the economic growth in Russia in two steps. First, three indicators of technological progress are used to test whether there is spatial dependence in economic growth in Russia. Second, a simple theoretical model is constructed in which economic growth is assumed to be exogenously determined and largely dependent on the externality of exports. Spatial dependence in the model is explained by the spatial lag of the explanatory variables. Empirical analysis of sector and space aggregates shows that the impact of export externality on employment growth in most sectors of the economy is significantly positive. At the same time, the role of spatially lagging export productivity levels on employment growth varies from one sector to another: in the industrial sector, spatially lagging export productivity levels hamper employment growth, but in the most advanced service sectors spatially lagging export productivity Level will accelerate employment growth.