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为研究民航安全监管制度的影响因素及其内在机理和监管模式,采用演化博弈理论构建政府监管部门与航空公司、航空公司与航空公司之间多方演化博弈模型,分析其稳定策略及演化路径。研究结果表明,航空公司的安全投入、航空公司规模、政府监管成本以及监管部门的激励及惩罚力度等因素都对政府监管部门和航空公司之间的多方博弈产生重要影响,进而影响民航安全运营。在航空公司自身加大安全投入的同时,政府监管部门应制定合理的规章制度,加大安全监管力度,并降低监管成本,就安全相关实际加强对航空公司的激励及惩罚力度,推动并提升安全投入的相关技术水平,切实降低安全投入成本,促进行业全方位进行安全投入,确保飞行安全。
In order to study the influential factors of civil aviation safety regulation system and its internal mechanism and supervision mode, evolutionary game theory is used to build a multi-party evolutionary game model between government regulatory agencies and airlines, airlines and airlines, and its stability strategy and evolutionary path are analyzed. The results show that the factors such as airline safety investment, airline size, government supervision cost and the incentive and punishment of regulators have an important impact on the multi-game between government regulators and airlines, thus affecting the safe operation of civil aviation. While increasing the safety investment for airlines themselves, the government regulatory authorities should formulate reasonable rules and regulations, increase safety supervision, lower the cost of supervision and enhance incentives and penalties for airlines in light of safety-related issues so as to promote and enhance safety Relevant technology inputs, and effectively reduce the cost of security investment, promote industry-wide security inputs to ensure flight safety.