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目前吉林省的农业保险参保率已超过70%,存在一定程度的“羊群效应”。对吉林农户的241份问卷调查发现,农户的参保意愿仍高出实际参保约10个百分点。运用LOGIT模型进行实证分析,户主对气象风险的重视程度、对农业保险的了解程度、对保费补贴政策的态度是影响潜在保险需求并决定有效需求的重要因素。笔者认为应该尊重当前农业保险环境的现实,注重农业保险数量与质量的和谐与稳健发展,并且有必要实施有条件的强制性农业保险。
At present, the insurance rate of agricultural insurance in Jilin Province has exceeded 70%, and there is a certain degree of “herding effect”. A survey of 241 farmers in Jilin found that the willingness of farmers to insure is still about 10 percentage points higher than that actually insured. Empirical analysis using LOGIT model, head of the importance of meteorological risks, the degree of understanding of agricultural insurance, premium subsidy policy is to influence the potential insurance demand and determine the effective demand of an important factor. The author believes that the current reality of agricultural insurance environment should be respected, the harmony and steady development of the quantity and quality of agricultural insurance should be emphasized, and it is necessary to implement conditional compulsory agricultural insurance.