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用水是整个水资源系统中的一个重要环节,需水预测是制定水资源规划、管理以及国民经济计划的基础和依据.提出了基于主成分分析法分析的需水量预测模型,试图能探讨需水定额与经济社会各影响关系响应,以郑州市为例对2010年、2020年和2030年的工业、农业和生活的需水量进行了预测,并与郑州市水资源规划的预测结果进行了比较,分析及比较结果表明:该模型预测结果比规划结果偏低,2010年、2020年和2030年平水年分别需水162295×104m3、179966×104m3和194696×104m3,需水结构的变化基本反映了郑州市产业结构调整和社会经济良性发展的趋势.
Water use is an important part of the whole water resource system, and water demand forecasting is the basis and basis for formulating water resources planning, management and national economy plan.It is put forward that water demand forecasting model based on principal component analysis Quota and economic and social impact of the relationship between the response to Zhengzhou as an example of 2010, 2020 and 2030 of the industrial, agricultural and living needs of water were predicted and compared with the Zhengzhou City Water Resources Planning Prediction results were compared, The results of analysis and comparison show that the prediction of this model is lower than that of the planning result. In the years of 2010, 2020 and 2030, the water demand is 162295 × 104m3, 179966 × 104m3 and 194696 × 104m3, respectively. The change of water demand structure basically reflects the changes of Zhengzhou City industrial restructuring and the trend of sound social and economic development.