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本文分别利用2003-2010年的面板数据和1993-2013年的时间序列数据验证人口结构和中国对外直接投资之间的关系,实证结果表明少儿抚养比的下降对中国的对外直接投资没有影响,老年抚养比的上升对中国的对外直接投资有显著的促进作用。为提高对外直接投资的质量,政府应努力实现人力资本水平的提高,同时应当防止国内老龄化引致的劳动力成本提升过快,导致过度的资本外移。
This paper verifies the relationship between population structure and Chinese OFDI by using panel data from 2003-2010 and time series data from 1993 to 2013 respectively. The empirical results show that the drop of children dependency ratio has no effect on OFDI in China. The rise of dependency ratio has significantly promoted China’s OFDI. In order to improve the quality of OFDI, the government should make efforts to raise the level of human capital, at the same time it should prevent the labor cost caused by the aging of the country from rising too fast, leading to excessive capital relocation.