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本文通过构建农户气候变化适应性决策对农业产出与产出风险影响的理论模型,利用陕西省8个苹果基地县660个苹果种植户的实地调查数据,评估了农户的农业产出风险,并采用内生转换模型分析了农户气候变化适应性决策对农业产出与产出风险的影响效应。结果表明:38.03%的样本农户采用覆膜、人工种草、铺秸秆、灌溉等措施适应气候变化;农户气候变化适应性决策能够增加农业产出,降低农业产出风险。基于反事实假设,采用适应措施的农户若未采用相应的适应措施,其亩均产出将下降3.72%,产出风险将增加107%;未采用适应措施的农户若采用相应的适应措施,其亩均产出将增加5.54%,产出风险将下降19.64%。降水量增加、户主受教育年限、参加合作组织及村庄提供适应措施信息服务对农户气候变化适应性决策有正向影响,而果树树龄对农户气候变化适应性决策有负向影响。
This paper evaluates the agricultural output risk of farmers by using the field survey data of 660 apple growers from 8 apple-based counties in Shaanxi Province by constructing a theoretical model of the impact of adaptive decision-making on climate change and agricultural output and output risks. The endogenous conversion model was used to analyze the effect of farmers’ adaptation to climate change on agricultural output and output risk. The results showed that: 38.03% of the sample farmers adapt to climate change by means of mulching, artificial grass planting, straw planting and irrigation; and farmers’ climate change adaptive decision-making can increase agricultural output and reduce agricultural output risk. Based on the anti-factual assumption, if the peasants adopting the adaptation measures do not adopt the corresponding adaptation measures, the output per mu will decrease by 3.72% and the output risk will increase by 107%. If the peasants who have not adopted the adaptation measures adopt the corresponding adaptation measures, Mu output will increase by 5.54%, output risk will drop 19.64%. Precipitation increased, head of household education, participation in cooperative organizations and villages to provide information services on adaptation measures have a positive impact on farmers ’adaptation to climate change, while the age of fruit trees have a negative impact on farmers’ adaptation to climate change.