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本文使用1998～2009年我国A股上市公司的面板数据对基于偏调整的杠杆决定方程、杠杆变化方程和投资方程进行实证分析。研究结果证实滞后一期市账率以及外部融资加权平均市账率指标与财务杠杆之间存在稳定的反向关系,普遍意义上讲市账率是衡量公司成长机会的良好指标,仅有那些权益融资相对量较大的样本组发现了市场择时的证据。此外,我们还发现外部融资加权平均市账率指标的引入并未显著改善杠杆决定方程的拟合效果,其对财务杠杆影响的持续期也相对较短。并且,我们发现杠杆与市账率之间的反向关系主要是一种横截面而非时间序列现象,也即横截面上的成长机会差异是其主要驱动因素。
This paper uses the panel data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 1998 to 2009 to make empirical analysis of the leverage-based adjustment equation, the leverage equation and the investment equation. The results of the study confirm that there is a stable inverse relationship between the L / G PBR and the weighted average P / B of external financing and the financial leverage. Generally speaking, P / B ratio is a good indicator to measure the growth opportunities of the company, and only those interests Sample groups with a relatively large amount of financing found evidence of market timing. In addition, we also find that the introduction of the weighted average P / B ratio of external financing has not significantly improved the fitting effect of the leverage determination equation, and its duration of financial leverage has also been relatively short. Moreover, we find that the inverse relationship between leverage and PBR is mainly a cross-section rather than a time-series phenomenon, ie the difference in growth opportunities across the cross-section is the main driver.