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西安市地面沉降已经对人们生活造成危害,因而日益受到人们的关注、本文将西安市地面沉降过程看作是一个灰色过程,地面沉降量被看作是一个灰变量,采用灰色系统理论中的GM(2,1)模型,对到本世纪末西安市地面沉降的发展趋势进行了预测。结果表明,到本世纪末,八府庄、长安环1、胡家庙、沙坡和草场坡将继续加速沉降,其中前二者的速率将达到350～360mm/y,胡家庙、沙坡的沉降速率将达到210mm/y,草场坡的沉降速率将达到100mm/y;金花饭店、小寨、西工大、导370的沉降速率将变慢,除金花饭店的沉降速率将降至78.8mm/y外,其余地点的沉降速率都将降下10～20mm/y。此外,还讨论了GM(2,1)模型对预测西安市地面沉降的适合性。
The land subsidence in Xi’an has already been endangering the people’s life. Therefore, people pay more and more attention to it. In this paper, the land subsidence process in Xi’an is regarded as a gray process. Land subsidence is regarded as a gray variable. The gray system theory GM (2,1) model, the trend of land subsidence in Xi’an is predicted by the end of this century. The results show that by the end of this century, the speeds of the two villages will reach 350-360 mm / y in the areas of Bafuzhuang, Chang’anhuan 1, Hujiaomiao, Shapo and Caochangpo, Sedimentation rate will reach 210mm / y, grassland slope settlement rate will reach 100mm / y; Jinhua Hotel, Xiaozhai, Xigong, Gui 370 settlement rate will slow down, except Jinhua Hotel settlement rate will be reduced to 78.8mm / y, the rest of the settlement rate will drop 10 ~ 20mm / y. In addition, the suitability of the GM (2,1) model for predicting land subsidence in Xi’an is also discussed.