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对农资市场的预测,总是一个热门与争议话题,行业内外的人都做过或正在做。长期(10年)预测,总显得遥远与难以验证;中期(5年)预测也许对我们具有一点建设意义与启发价值;短期(1~3年)预测,总显得空洞或难合现实。本文是作者在整体宏观上的预测,并不具体到某个微观企业,是基于10年农药营销实证分析、理性思考与规范论证之后的保守估计,当然也属于一孔之见,欢迎修正。
Prediction of the agricultural market is always a hot topic and controversial topic, both inside and outside the industry have done or are doing. Long-term (10-year) forecasts are always far-reaching and difficult to verify. Mid-term (5-year) forecasts may have some constructive and inspiring value to us. Short-term forecasts (1-3 years) are always empty or unrealistic. This article is the author’s overall macroeconomic forecast, not specific to a micro-enterprise, is based on 10 years of empirical analysis of pesticide marketing, rational thinking and normative argument after a conservative estimate, of course, belong to a hole in the view, welcomed the amendment.