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对大坝观测量进行回归分析,建立统计模型是目前分析大坝工作性态,进行安全监控的有效手段。但是回归因子之间的相关性会对回归分析效果产生很大的影响,甚至使分析失效。姚楚光同志在“因子相关性对大坝安全监测资料回归分析的影响”(下简称“原文”,见《大坝观测与土工测试》1987年第二期)一文中对这一问题作了探讨,是很有价值的。原文对周期性变化的温度和库水位之间的关系作了详细的分析,认为两因子之间的相关程度取决于它们之间的相位差,当温度和库水位之间相位差满足:
Regression analysis of the dam observation, the establishment of statistical models is currently an analysis of dam behavior, safety monitoring and effective means. However, the correlation between regression factors will have a great impact on the effect of regression analysis, and even invalidate the analysis. This issue was discussed by Comrade Yao Chuguang in “The Influence of Factor Correlation on Regression Analysis of Dam Safety Monitoring Data” (hereinafter referred to as “The Original”, see “Dam Observation and Geotechnical Testing”, 1987, No. 2) It is very valuable. The relationship between the cyclical temperature and the reservoir water level is analyzed in detail in this paper. The correlation between two factors depends on the phase difference between them. When the phase difference between the temperature and the reservoir water level satisfies: