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基于2005-2008年南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡人数监测资料、同期气象数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,在风寒指数基础上研究气象要素与呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的相关关系,并进行合成分析和个例分析.结果表明,南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡人数存在季节性差异,高峰期出现在每年的1、2和12月;气温、气压与呼吸系统疾病死亡人数之间存在显著的相关,相关系数分别为-0.460、0.379,表明气温和气压对呼吸系统疾病死亡人数影响较大,主成分分析法结果也证明了这一点.风寒指数作为反映综合气象因子的指数,相关系数为-0.428,通过了0.01的显著性检验.气象因子和风寒指数对呼吸系统疾病的影响均存在明显的滞后效应,气压和气温在第5天达到最大,风寒指数则在第4天影响最大.利用合成分析发现,造成呼吸系统疾病死亡人数异常偏多的冷空气过程中,显著相关的气象因子是变压、变湿和风寒指数,其阈值分别为8.6 hPa、±0.1和-1.83.利用2005年3月10-12日冷空气过程进行个例分析,结果显示冷空气过程会带来气象要素的一系列变化,该次个例过程地面增压22.1 hPa,风速增加4~m/s,24 h变温达-14℃,并带来降水,风寒指数3 d平均为-2.3,均显著超过阈值范围,最终导致平均呼吸系统疾病日死亡人数远大于4 a日平均值,进一步证实了冷空气过程会导致呼吸系统疾病日死亡人数显著增加,并存在3~4 d的滞后效应.
Based on the monitoring data of respiratory deaths in Nanjing in 2005-2008, the meteorological data of the same period and the NCEP / NCAR reanalysis data, the correlation between meteorological factors and the deaths of respiratory diseases was studied on the basis of the index of cold wind, The results showed that there was a seasonal difference in the number of deaths from respiratory diseases in Nanjing, with the peak occurring in January, January and December of each year. There was a significant correlation between temperature and air pressure and the number of deaths from respiratory diseases. The correlation coefficients were -0.460,0.379, indicating that temperature and pressure have a greater impact on the death toll of respiratory diseases, and the result of principal component analysis also proves this.As the index reflecting the comprehensive meteorological factor, the chilling index is -0.428 and passes 0.01 Of the significance test.Meteorological factors and wind index on respiratory diseases have significant hysteresis effect, pressure and temperature reached the maximum on the 5th day, the wind index reached the maximum on the 4th.Using the synthetic analysis found that the cause of breathing In the process of cold air with abnormally high mortality due to system diseases, the significant meteorological factors related to transfiguration, humidification and Cold index, the threshold values are 8.6 hPa, ± 0.1 and -1.83, respectively.Using the case study of cold air from March 10 to March 12, 2005, the results show that the cold air process will bring a series of changes in meteorological elements, In the case of example, the surface pressurization was 22.1 hPa, the wind speed increased by 4 ~ m / s, the temperature reached -14 ℃ after 24 h, and brought about precipitation. The average value of wind-cold index was -2.3 for 3 days, all significantly exceeding the threshold range, The number of deaths on the disease day was much larger than the 4-day mean, further confirming that the cold-air process resulted in a significant increase in the number of deaths from the respiratory disease day, with a lag effect of 3-4 days.