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本文采用我国30个省、自治区、直辖市(不包括西藏)1997———2008年的数据,建立动态面板模型,使用Arellano-Bond一阶差分广义矩估计法,研究短期与中长期贷款余额当期及其滞后量对各地区经济总量的影响。此外,使用固定效应模型研究了中长期贷款余额与短期贷款余额比率对通货膨胀的影响。结果表明:当期的中长期贷款对当期的经济总量有非常显著的正向影响,但当期的短期贷款余额则对经济总量无显著影响;滞后一期的短期贷款和中长期贷款余额对经济总量均无显著影响。中长期贷款余额和短期贷款余额的比率对通货膨胀率有着显著的负向的影响,该比率每增加一个百分点,通货膨胀率将下降0.046个百分点。
This paper uses the data from 1997-2008 of 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities (excluding Tibet) in our country to establish a dynamic panel model. Using Arellano-Bond first-order difference generalized moment estimation method, this paper studies the current and future balances of short- and long- The impact of its lag on the total economic output in all regions. In addition, the fixed-effects model was used to study the effect of the ratio of long-term loan balance to short-term loan balance on inflation. The results show that: medium and long-term loans in the current period have a very significant positive impact on the current economic aggregate, but the current short-term loan balance has no significant impact on the total economy; lagged short-term loans and long- No significant effect on the total amount. The ratio of long-term loan balances to short-term loan balances has a significant negative effect on the inflation rate. For every one percentage point increase in the ratio, the inflation rate will decrease by 0.046 percentage point.