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本文针对上位机与西门子S7-300PLC之间的网络通信流量提出一种流量预测模型,该模型可以有效地地预测上位机与s7-300PLC之间的通信流量。本文首先使用wireshark抓包软件获取1小时内上位机与西门子s7-300 PLC之间通信链路中的所有数据包,将这些数据包根据上位机和PLC的ip地址过滤后,生成流量时间序列,并对其进行平稳性分析,分析结果表明该流量时间序列具有平稳性。又由于本文仅考虑流量时间序列中的短相关性,因此选择时间序列预测模型ARMA对该流量进行建模。建模完成后,本文又进行了模型预测与回测实验,实验结果显示绝大多数预测点的误差被控制在1%以内,仅有极个别点误差在10%左右,总体预测效果优良,从而得出结束语:本文建立的ARMA模型可以有效地预测上位机与s7-300 PLC之间的通信流量。
This paper proposes a traffic prediction model for the network traffic between the host computer and Siemens S7-300PLC. This model can effectively predict the traffic between the host computer and the s7-300PLC. This paper first use wireshark capture software to get within 1 hour PC and Siemens s7-300 PLC in the communication link between all packets, these packets according to PC and PLC ip address filtering, generate traffic time series, The stability analysis is carried out. The analysis results show that the time series of the traffic flow is stable. Since this paper considers only the short correlation in the traffic time series, ARMA is chosen to model this traffic. After the modeling is completed, the model prediction and backtesting experiments are carried out again. The experimental results show that the error of most of the prediction points is controlled within 1%, and the error of only individual points is about 10%. The overall prediction effect is good. Concluded: ARMA model established in this paper can effectively predict the PC and s7-300 PLC communication traffic.