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自1865年以来,全球期货品种下市率超过30%。本文以“现货溢价理论”为基础,从期货市场演进和投资损益角度,揭示了期货品种成败的一般规律和根本原因,证明企业的套期保值需求程度是决定品种成败的首要因素;作为投机者承担风险而获得的补偿,风险溢价水平是影响期货品种成败的次要因素。现货市场规模、生产周期、价格波动程度、企业生产结构、投机者数量、期货合约标准化程度等多个因素,通过影响企业套期保值需求、投机者收益和市场交易成本,改变期货品种风险溢价的高低。在期货品种筛选、上市和维护中,始终注重套期保值需求,兼顾风险溢价水平,是我国期货品种高成功率的原因。
Since 1865, the global futures market has exceeded 30%. Based on “spot premium theory ”, this article reveals the general rules and fundamental reasons for the success or failure of futures products from the perspectives of futures market evolution and investment gains and losses, and proves that the degree of hedging needs of enterprises is the primary factor that determines the success or failure of varieties. Speculators to take risks and obtain compensation, the risk premium level is the success or failure of futures products, a secondary factor. The spot market scale, the production cycle, the price volatility, the production structure of enterprises, the number of speculators, the standardization of futures contracts and so on. By influencing the enterprises ’hedging demand, speculators’ income and market transaction costs, High and low. In the futures selection, listing and maintenance, always focus on the needs of hedging, taking into account the level of risk premium, is the reason for the high success rate of China’s futures varieties.