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为了预测评价山区沿河公路水毁灾害,通过理论分析和专家系统调查,阐明了沿河公路水毁危险性的含义,确定了其主要危险因子(洪水流量、水位、流速)和次要危险因子(洪水持续时间、河流形态)。运用灰色系统的关联度方法,根据关联序确定了各危险因子的权重;在因子等级划分的基础上,提出了沿河公路水毁危险性指数的计算方法,并在工程中得到了应用。研究成果可供沿河公路水毁易发段危险性点及整个路段的评价参考。
In order to predict and assess the disaster of water damage in the river along the highway in mountainous area, this paper clarifies the meaning of the danger of water damage along the river by theoretical analysis and expert system investigation, and identifies the main risk factors (flood flow, water level and flow rate) and secondary risk factors (Flood duration, river pattern). By using the gray relational degree method, the weight of each risk factor is determined according to the correlation order. Based on the factor hierarchy, a calculation method for the hazard index of water damage along the river is put forward and applied in the project. The results of the research can be used as a reference for the evaluation of the dangerous points along the river and the entire road section.