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为了解析货币政策对住房市场量价关系的作用机理,选取房屋销售价格指数、商品房销售面积、银行拆借利率、国内贷款占房地产投资比例等变量构建向量误差修正模型,结合2001-2012年的季度数据分析货币政策通过利率渠道和信贷渠道对住房市场量价关系的影响。结果表明:1)房价与成交量之间存在长期协整关系,房价是成交量的长短期Granger原因,但成交量不是房价的长短期Granger因果关系;2)成交量对货币政策冲击的响应强度大于房价,且信贷渠道的作用并不显著;3)利率上调的冲击会在短期提高房价,但在长期将抑制房价上涨。
In order to analyze the mechanism of the relationship between monetary policy and the relationship between price and housing prices, a vector error correction model is constructed based on variables such as housing sales price index, real estate sales area, bank lending rate and domestic loan-to-real estate investment ratio. Combined with quarterly data from 2001 to 2012 Analyze the influence of monetary policy on the relation of volume and price in housing market through interest rate channels and credit channels. The results show that: 1) there is a long-term cointegration relationship between housing price and trading volume. House price is Granger reason of the turnover, but the turnover is not the long-term Granger causality of housing price. 2) The response of the trading volume to monetary policy shock Greater than housing prices, and the role of credit channel is not significant; 3) the impact of interest rate hikes will raise housing prices in the short term, but will curb housing prices in the long run.