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文章关注我国新出口市场中企业的进入顺序对其出口持续时间的影响。由于首个进入的先锋企业对其他企业有正外部性,考察它在存活率上是否占有优势具有重要的政策含义。基于中国海关的月度出口数据,文章对2002年新市场的先锋企业和跟随企业进行了生存分析。结果显示,在新市场中企业的存活率整体较低;先锋企业在早期的存活率高于跟随企业,但这种优势保持的时间较短;若集中分析存活3个月以上的企业,则发现跟随企业平均出口持续时间更长。文章进一步采用Cox比例风险模型进行了回归分析,发现在控制了目的地国家、产业以及企业层面的特征以后,以上现象依然存在且非常稳健。由此,文章建议国家对先锋企业进行适度补贴。
The article focuses on the impact of the order of entry of enterprises in the new export markets on the duration of their exports. As the first vanguard entering the enterprise has positive externalities to other businesses, it is of major policy significance to examine whether it has an advantage over its survival rate. Based on monthly export data from China Customs, the article analyzes the survival of pioneer firms and follow-ups in new markets in 2002. The results show that in the new market, the overall survival rate of enterprises is low; Vanguard companies in the early survival rate is higher than the follow-up business, but this advantage to maintain a short period of time; focus on survival of more than 3 months of the enterprise, then found The average export business to follow longer duration. The article further uses the Cox proportional hazards model for regression analysis and finds that the above phenomena still exist and are very robust after controlling for the characteristics of the destination country, industry and enterprise level. As a result, the article suggests that the state should give appropriate subsidies to pioneer enterprises.