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[目的]梳理大型活动可能面临的公共卫生风险及其来源,为开展风险评估提供客观指标。[方法]采用两轮德尔菲咨询法进行指标筛选,建立两级指标体系。[结果]大型活动公共卫生风险评估指标体系由4项一级指标、17项二级指标组成,其中一级指标包括:(1)风险发生的可能性;(2)风险造成的影响和后果;(3)人群的公共卫生脆弱性;(4)具备的预防处置能力。风险分值计算公式为:p(R)=k[p(H)×p(V)]-AC。两轮专家征询后,所有17项二级指标必要性评分分值的变异系数均小于0.25,但仍有9项二级指标的可获得性评分变异系数大于0.25。[结论]利用公共卫生风险评估指标体系开展风险评估可降低专家的主观性对结果的影响。本指标体系的特点包括:适用范围较广,并不局限于单一类型的大型活动;将预防处置能力纳入评估内容,使评估结果更科学,也对后续应对措施的确定提供更多参考依据。
[Objective] To sort out public health risks and sources that large-scale activities may face and provide objective indicators for carrying out risk assessment. [Method] The index was screened by two rounds of Delphi consulting method, and a two-level index system was established. [Results] The index system of public health risk assessment for large-scale activities consists of 4 first-level indicators and 17 second-level indicators. The first-level indicators include: (1) the possibility of risk occurrence; (2) the impact and consequence of the risk; (3) Public health vulnerability of the population; (4) Preventive disposal capacity. The risk score is calculated as: p (R) = k [p (H) × p (V)] - AC. After consultation by two rounds of experts, the coefficients of variation of all 17 secondary necessity scores were less than 0.25, but there were still 9 secondary ones whose coefficient of variation coefficients of variation were above 0.25. [Conclusion] The use of public health risk assessment index system to carry out risk assessment can reduce the subjectivity of experts on the results. The characteristics of the indicator system include: a wider scope of application, not limited to a single type of large-scale activities; the prevention and disposal capabilities into the assessment content, the evaluation results more scientific, but also to provide more reference for the follow-up response measures.