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本文使用投入产出模型,基于最新的GTAP8数据库,分析了2004年和2007年中国与发达国家和发展中国家贸易隐含碳流向、结构及变化,结果显示中国均为隐含碳净出口国。基于LMDI法对隐含碳净出口进一步分解发现,影响中国对发达国家和发展中国家隐含碳净出口的因素不同,贸易顺差和排放系数差异是导致中国对发达国家隐含碳净出口的关键因素,行业结构差异和排放系数差异是影响中国对发展中国家净出口的关键原因。这与发达国家、中国和其他发展中国家在全球产业链中的分工密切相关。2004-2007年,中国出口结构逐渐转向高端制造业,生产技术逐渐接近发达国家水平。未来随着中国国内技术进步和产业升级、出口结构优化,隐含碳净出口将会下降,贸易对中国碳排放的驱动力会减弱。
Based on the latest GTAP8 database, this paper analyzes the implied carbon flows, structure and changes in trade between China and developed and developing countries in 2004 and 2007. The results show that China is a net exporter of implicit carbon. The further decomposition of the net export of hidden carbon based on the LMDI method shows that the factors that affect China’s net export of carbon to developed and developing countries are different. The trade surplus and the emission coefficient difference are the key factors that cause China’s net export to the implied carbon of developed countries Factors, differences in industrial structure and differences in emission factors are the key factors that influence China’s net exports to developing countries. This is closely related to the division of labor among the developed countries, China and other developing countries in the global industrial chain. From 2004 to 2007, China’s export structure gradually shifted to high-end manufacturing, and its production technology gradually approached the level of developed countries. In the future, with China’s domestic technological progress and industrial upgrading, the export structure will be optimized and the net export of hidden carbon will decline. The driving force of trade on China’s carbon emissions will be weakened.