本文选取时间序列1985~2002年,以粮谷、茶叶和棉花为例,通过计量分析,从国内因素和国际因素两个方面对我国农产品出口不稳定性的成因进行了讨论。研究发现:不同农产品的不稳定性不同,受到的影响因素亦各不相同,通过影响国内需求波动和稳定国内供给可以显著降低不同商品的出口不稳定性程度,国外因素对于单个农产品的影响则没有国内因素显著;而考察其整体影响因素可知,国内的需求波动对于出口的价格和数量的不稳定性影响显著,国内的供给波动仅对出口额有影响,而国外需求波动则对出口量和出口额均有显著影响,对出口价格则无显著影响。 This paper selects the time series from 1985 to 2002, taking the grain, tea and cotton as examples, through the econometric analysis, the reasons for the instability of China’s agricultural exports are discussed from the domestic and international factors. The study found that: the instability of different agricultural products is different, and the influencing factors are also different. By affecting domestic demand fluctuations and stabilizing domestic supply, the export instability of different commodities can be significantly reduced. The impact of foreign factors on individual agricultural products is not The domestic factors are significant. However, considering the overall influencing factors, domestic demand fluctuations have a significant impact on the instability of export prices and quantities. Domestic supply fluctuations have only an impact on exports while fluctuations in foreign demand have a negative impact on exports and exports The amount of both have a significant impact on the export price did not have a significant impact.