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目前,经济发展形势发生重大变化,企业因陷入财务困境面临经营危机乃至破产清算的风险大大增加。本文构建融合ARTXP算法与ARIMA算法的时间序列预测模型对26家ST公司开展实证研究,结果发现:融合了两类算法的时序预测模型对影响ST公司财务困境程度的关键财务指标具有良好的预测效果。
At present, the situation of economic development has undergone major changes, and the risks of enterprises running into financial crises and bankruptcies have risen greatly. This paper constructs a time series forecasting model that combines ARTXP algorithm and ARIMA algorithm to do empirical research on 26 ST companies. The result shows that the time series prediction model based on two types of algorithms has a good predictive effect on the key financial indicators that affect the degree of ST of financial distress. .