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1997年以来,我国的宏观经济增长面临着逐年萎缩的困境。天津市的宏观经济也不可避免地受大环境的影响,走势渐趋低迷。面对这种情况,各方有识之士就如何扩大内需、实施卓有成效的财政、货币政策以促进经济增长等问题展开探讨,提出了不同观点。本文运用一种有别于传统宏观经济理论的新理论,对近年来天津的宏观经济形势及2001年的宏观经济走势进行预测分析。一、天津的经济波动(1990年～1999年)1.名义 GDP 增长率、投资增长率的波动
Since 1997, China’s macroeconomic growth is facing a dwindling situation year by year. Tianjin’s macro-economy is also inevitably affected by the macroeconomic environment, and its trend is becoming increasingly sluggish. Faced with this situation, people of insight from all walks of life on how to expand domestic demand, the implementation of fruitful financial and monetary policies to promote economic growth and other issues discussed, put forward different views. This paper uses a new theory different from the traditional macroeconomic theory to forecast the macroeconomic situation in Tianjin in recent years and the macroeconomic trends in 2001. I. Economic Fluctuation in Tianjin (1990 ~ 1999) 1. Fluctuation in nominal GDP growth rate and investment growth rate