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一、引言 当1971年Richard Cooper在普林斯顿发表纪念Graham的演讲时,各国的货币危机都遵从相同的模式。当时,新兴市场国家的货币危机基本上是由中央银行为巨额的财政赤字融资引起的,这种模式一直持续到90年代初。在名义汇率同定时,国内信贷的扩张会导致外汇储备的逐渐减少和不可避免的货币贬值。Krugman(1979)用“第一代”投机攻击模型在理论上解释了这种类型的货币危机。Kamin(1988)、Edwards(1989)以及Edwards和Santaella(1993)详细研究了1950—1985年间的货币危机,
I. INTRODUCTION When Richard Cooper delivered a speech in honor of Graham in Princeton in 1971, the currency crises of all countries followed the same pattern. At that time, the currency crisis in emerging market countries was basically caused by the central bank financing huge budget deficits, which lasted until the early 1990s. At the same nominal exchange rate, the expansion of domestic credit will lead to the gradual reduction of foreign exchange reserves and the unavoidable currency devaluation. Krugman (1979) used the “first generation” speculative attack model to explain this type of currency crisis theoretically. Kamin (1988), Edwards (1989) and Edwards and Santaella (1993) examined in detail the currency crisis between 1950 and 1985,