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根据苹果蠹蛾已知的生物学数据和地理分布信息,利用CLIMEX模型分析苹果蠹蛾在山东省的适生情况;利用有害生物风险分析方法,对苹果蠹蛾入侵山东的风险性做出综合评价。结果表明,苹果蠹蛾在山东全境均可适生,且烟台、威海、青岛东部、德州、聊城、菏泽、济南及滨州西部为高度适生区;苹果蠹蛾入侵山东的风险极大,风险性评价值为0.895,据此提出山东省苹果蠹蛾监测防控建议。
Based on the known biological data and geographical distribution information of Cydia pomonella, CLIMEX model was used to analyze the fitness of Cydia pomonella in Shandong province. The pest risk assessment method was used to make a comprehensive evaluation of the risk of Cydia pomonella invasion of Shandong . The results showed that codling moth could be adapted to the whole area in Shandong Province, and Yantai, Weihai, eastern Qingdao, Dezhou, Liaocheng, Heze, Jinan and western Binzhou were highly suitable areas. The risk of Cydia pomonella invasion to Shandong was extremely high. Sexual evaluation value of 0.895, thus proposed monitoring and control of codling moth in Shandong Province prevention and control recommendations.