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电子商务O2O模式的市场规模不断扩大,如何有效防范O2O模式下供应链失效的风险,成为确保电商O2O良好运营的关键。对O2O模式下供应链失效风险的关键影响要素进行研究,并根据各影响要素之间的因果关系构建O2O模式下供应链失效风险识别的贝叶斯网络结构,运用三角模糊数方法获取贝叶斯网络条件概率值。以生鲜农产品供应链为例,构建O2O模式下供应链失效风险识别模型,并进行仿真研究。
As the market size of e-commerce O2O mode continues to expand, how to effectively guard against the risk of supply chain failure under O2O mode becomes the key to ensure the good operation of e-commerce O2O. This paper studies the key influence factors of supply chain failure risk under O2O mode and constructs the Bayesian network structure of supply chain failure risk identification under O2O mode according to the causal relationship among the influencing factors. The triangular fuzzy number method is used to obtain Bayesian Network condition probability value. Taking the fresh produce supply chain as an example, this paper constructs a model of identifying the failure of supply chain under O2O and conducts a simulation study.