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提供了评价假想地震预警系统,降低潜在灾害风险值的范围研究的成果。本研究根据的是对人口和基础设施降低灾害风险可采取的行动、采取每个行动需要多少时间和给定所采取行动的性质情况下虚报的潜在后果的分析。范围分析结果表明,可通过改进现有的事件通知系统、对通知的个体响应和为当地规划绘制并利用更详细灾害风险图来降低灾害风险。根据地质条件和过程的现有知识所制定的详细地图和培训计划,将减少灾害风险分析结果部分的不确定性。地震的发震时间、震级和震中位置的不确定性以及虚报的潜在影响将对预警系统的价值提出重大的挑战。
It provides the results of the research on the range of potential earthquake disaster risk assessment for hypothetical earthquake early warning system. This study is based on an analysis of the actions that population and infrastructure can take to reduce disaster risk, how long each action takes and the potential consequences of false reporting given the nature of the action taken. The results of the scoping analysis indicate that disaster risk reduction can be mitigated by improving existing incident notification systems, individual responses to notifications and drawing up and using more detailed disaster risk maps for local planning. The detailed maps and training plans based on available knowledge of geological conditions and processes will reduce the uncertainty of the disaster risk analysis. The time of the earthquake, the magnitude of the earthquake and the location of the epicenter, as well as the potential impact of the false declaration, will pose major challenges to the value of the early warning system.