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构建了人口发展与经济增长的系统动力学模型,引入联合国人口预测成果,考察高、中、低三种出生率方案下未来经济增长的趋势。研究结果表明:未来经济增长将更依赖于人口发展系统的改善,而出生率增加能有效提升人口数量、改善人口结构,人口质量的提升则需教育经费的支撑。短期内人口生育政策的变化难以发挥实效,但可通过提高劳动参与率和职业培训等方法,有效盘活现有劳动力和人力资本存量。长期内我国应进一步放松人口生育管制,辅以社会保障水平的完善,推动生育意愿的增强和人口质量的提升。
The system dynamics model of population growth and economic growth is constructed. The UN population projection is introduced to investigate the future economic growth trend under the three birth rates programs of high, medium and low. The results show that the future economic growth will depend more on the improvement of the population development system. However, the increase of birth rate can effectively increase the population and improve the population structure. The improvement of population quality requires the support of education funds. In the short term, changes in the population fertility policy will hardly be effective, but the existing stock of labor and human capital may be effectively activated through such measures as increasing labor force participation rate and vocational training. In the long term, our country should further relax the control of population control, supplemented by the improvement of the social security level, and promote the enhancement of the wishes of childbearing and the improvement of population quality.