论文部分内容阅读
利用历史时期的地震数据,以及地震震中固体潮参数的分布特征,通过其相关性可设计发震概率的预报函数,为此我们提出一种行星地球的地震预警系统的设计方案,该模型理论上可模拟预报任何时间、任何地点的强震发震概率.此外,该系统亦可方便地获取全球或局部区域的模拟地震指数.实现精确的定点预报与区域的指数预测相结合.采用NEIC提供的全球1544次M≥6.5级地震数据,举例给出全球和台湾附近地区2010年1月1日UT=0:0的瞬时地震指数,以及台湾附近地区的平均地震指数.基于对美国旧金山所作10年的强震定点预测,给出其附近区域在2015年6月24日±15日内的平均地震指数.
Based on the distribution characteristics of the historical tidal parameters and the seismic data of the historical epicenter, we can design the prediction function of the seismogenic probability through the correlation. For this reason, we propose a design scheme of earthquake early warning system for the planet Earth. In theory, Which can simulate the earthquake probability of strong earthquakes at any time and any place.It also can easily obtain the simulated earthquakes index in the global or local area.It can combine the precise point forecast with the regional index forecast.Using NEIC The data of 1544 M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in the world are given by way of example, giving the instantaneous seismic indices of UT = 0: 0 on January 1, 2010 around the world and in Taiwan, and the average seismic index in the area around Taiwan. Based on the data of 10 years Of the strong earthquake fixed point prediction, given its vicinity in the June 24, 2015 ± 15 days average seismic index.