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现行推求设计潮位过程线采用的同频率设计方法,未考虑到高潮位与潮差间的相关性及同时发生的概率。择优选用G-H Copula函数建立年最高潮位和年最大潮差的二维联合分布模型,对重现期进行计算与分析。以天津港塘沽站长期潮位资料为研究数据,经分析得到以下结果:在年最高潮位与年最大潮差相关性弱的感潮河段,较大重现期的高潮位和潮差同频率发生的概率很小;实测资料中年最高潮位与相应潮差的同现重现期主要受高潮位重现期的控制,且二者间存在良好的线性相关关系。提出了一种以高潮位为控制要素,结合同现重现期推求设计潮位过程线的方法,可应用于以考虑高潮位为主的防洪潮设计,而对以考虑潮流为主的设计潮位过程线推求则不适用。
The current design method of the same frequency used in the process of designing the tide level does not take into account the correlation between the high tide level and the tidal range and the probability of occurring simultaneously. G-H Copula function is the best choice for establishing the two-dimensional joint distribution model of annual maximum tide level and annual maximum tidal range to calculate and analyze the recurrence period. Based on the long-term tidal level data of Tianjin Port-Tanggu Station, the following results are obtained: At the tidal reach with weak correlation with the annual maximum tidal range and annual maximum tidal range, the high tide level and tidal range of the larger recurrence period occur at the same frequency The probability of occurrence is very small. The co-occurrence date of the middle-peak tidal range and the corresponding tidal range of the measured data is mainly controlled by the period of high tide recurrence, and there is a good linear correlation between the two. A method of using the high tide level as the control factor and deducing the course of the design tide level in conjunction with the co-occurrence period can be applied to the design of flood control tidal volume which takes the high tide level as the main consideration. Line is not applicable.