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当初,美联储为了缓和科技股泡沫的破灭及恐怖袭击对经济的影响而采取了放松银根的政策,结果刺激了楼市泡沫的兴起。而如今,如果出现美国楼市大幅度下跌的局面,美联储很可能再次采取放松银根的政策,因为楼市对经济的影响远远大于股市对美国经济的影响。这样的结果将对中国的汇率改革和宏观调控来说都是十分不利的,它增加了中国经济波动的风险。
At first, the Federal Reserve adopted a monetary easing policy to ease the economic bubble caused by the collapse of the technology stocks and the terrorist attacks, and as a result stimulated the rise of the real estate bubble. Now, if there is a sharp drop in the US property market, the Fed is likely to once again adopt a monetary easing policy because the market’s impact on the economy is far greater than the stock market’s impact on the U.S. economy. Such a result will be very unfavorable to China’s exchange rate reform and macro-control. It will increase the risk of China’s economic fluctuations.