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本文基于协整理论和VECM分析了中国主要门类基础设施指标与总产出之间的协整及Granger因果关系。根据本文研究,大多数基础设施和基础设施服务指标都是非平稳的一阶单整,主要基础设施指标都与总产出、经济结构变动等经济变量构成了长期的均衡关系。本文的结论是:在基础设施与经济增长的互动关系中,基础设施促进经济增长居于主导地位。
This paper analyzes cointegration and Granger causality between China’s main categories of infrastructure indicators and total output based on cointegration theory and VECM. According to this study, most of the infrastructure and infrastructure service indicators are non-stationary first-order units. The major infrastructure indicators all have long-term equilibrium with economic variables such as total output and economic structure changes. The conclusion of this paper is that infrastructure plays an important role in promoting economic growth in the interaction between infrastructure and economic growth.