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1994年我就曾预测中国到2030年前可以保持每年8%的增长,到时经济规模可以赶上美国甚至超过。当时普遍认为不可能,说我是唱好中国。然而,一个国家是不能唱好也不能唱衰的,只能根据事实来分析。虽然中国的经济增长较为平稳,但是要维持这个增长幅度还需要某些变革。而我认为中国维持8%增长的潜力,还需要在两个方面有所改变:第一,政策应该是真正挖掘潜力的政策,而不是赶超的政策。第二,作为发展中国家,确实有各种社会经济问题和
In 1994, I had predicted that China could maintain an annual growth rate of 8% by 2030, when the economy can catch up with the United States or even more. It was generally considered impossible at that time, saying that I was singing China well. However, if a country can not sing or fail, it can only be analyzed on the basis of facts. Although China’s economic growth is relatively stable, some changes are still needed to maintain this growth rate. And I think the potential for China to maintain its 8% growth needs to be changed in two ways. First, the policy should be a real potential digging rather than a catch-up one. Second, as a developing country, there are indeed various social and economic issues