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过去几周,市场持续高度关注的是总资产达10万亿元的中国信托业是否会发生首例违约事件。据中国媒体报道,中诚信托在最后一刻与投资者达成协议,将如期兑付所有本金和大部分利息。这意味着中国的影子银行再次有惊无险地躲过首例违约危机。但是市场的担忧并未随之消失。人为防止违约是中国影子银行活动被严重扭曲的体现,而且我们认为在经济增长放缓的背景下,2014年违约事件将不可避免。我们的担忧是,如果发生违约,投资者会不会就此离开,让整个影子银行市场陷入流动性危机并进而导致一场信贷危机。过去几年非银行融资(或所谓的影子银行)规模快速膨胀。2012年底,中国的非银行融资总值达到了36万亿元(相当于GDP的70%),截至2013年9月,非银行融资规模进一步扩大至46.7万亿元(相当于GDP的84%)。其中信托资产(2013年前九个月增长2.66万亿元)、理财产品(增长2.82万亿元)、委托贷款(增长1.8万亿元)和银证合作(即银行与证券公司之间的通道业务,2013年前三
In the past few weeks, the market remains highly concerned about the first default in the Chinese trust industry with a total assets of 10 trillion yuan. According to Chinese media reports, Chinatrust Trust reached an agreement with investors at the last moment and will pay all the principal and most of the interest as scheduled. This means that China’s shadow bank once again escaped the first crisis of default. However, market concerns have not disappeared. Man-made default prevention is a serious distortion of the shadow banking activities in China and we believe that the 2014 event of default will be inevitable in the context of slowing economic growth. Our concern is whether investors will leave in the event of a default, plunging the entire shadow banking market into a liquidity crisis and then a credit crunch. The scale of non-bank financing (or so-called shadow banking) has expanded rapidly over the past few years. By the end of 2012, China’s non-bank financing totaled 36 trillion yuan (equivalent to 70% of GDP). As of September 2013, non-bank financing expanded further to 46.7 trillion yuan (equivalent to 84% of GDP) . Among them, trust assets (an increase of 2.66 trillion yuan in the first nine months of 2013), wealth management products (an increase of 2.82 trillion yuan), entrusted loans (an increase of 1.8 trillion yuan) and cooperation with banks (ie, channels between banks and securities companies Business, the first three in 2013