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利用天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川1959—2006年的气象、冰川物质平衡和1980—2006年的水文资料,分析了其冰川径流的变化.结果表明:由于1996年以来的显著升温,导致了1号冰川水文点径流主要受夏季气温变化的控制,冰川物质损失对径流的补给作用已超过了降水的作用.1996—2006年与1980—1995年相比,夏季气温升高了0.9℃,降水增加了84.8mm(18.1%),冰川径流增加256.6mm(37.3%),其中约12.3%来自降水增加,约26.9%来自冰川物质的加速消融.对1980—1995年和1996—2006年两个时间段的气温和径流变化进行比较,并考虑到冰川区降水主要为降雪,折合夏季气温升高1℃将导致冰川径流增加470mm.夏季气温与冰川物质平衡和冰川径流的统计分析亦得出同样的结果.
Based on the meteorological data of glaciers from January to September, Urumqi, Heyuan, China, and the hydrological data of glaciers from 1980 to 2006, the glacier runoff changes were analyzed. The results show that the glacier runoff caused by the significant temperature increase since 1996 led to the first glacier The hydrological point runoff is mainly controlled by the change of summer temperature, and the material recharge of glacier has surpassed the effect of precipitation on the runoff.Compared with 1980-1995, the temperature in summer increased by 0.9 ℃ in summer and increased by 84.8 (18.1%) and the glacier runoff increased by 256.6mm (37.3%), of which about 12.3% came from the increase of precipitation and about 26.9% from the acceleration melting of glacier material. For the two periods of 1980-1995 and 1996-2006 And runoff changes, taking into account that the precipitation in the glacier region is mainly snowfall, which is equivalent to an increase of 1 ℃ in summer, resulting in an increase of 470mm in glacier runoff. The same result was also obtained from the statistical analysis of summer air temperature and glacial mass balance and glacier runoff.