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作者认为,制约中国经济体制改革的最根本的因素是人口、就业、通货膨胀,从中国十年改革的情况来看,这是一支无形的手,使得许多很好的改革措施被扭曲。因此,在九十年代,中国的改革必须从人口、就业、通货膨胀的现实出发,作出战略性的选择。从中国的具体国情出发,既不可能没有失业,也不可能没有通货膨胀;既不可能允许有大量的失业,也不可能承受高通货膨胀。为此,只能走一条中间的道路:既承认一定的失业又承受适度的通货膨胀,即一定的失业率与一定的通货膨胀率并存。这是一种不得已又不能不作出的选择。作者认为,这里关键是一个“度”的确定。而这个“度”的确定实际上是与国民经济的发展速度相联系的。确定适当的发展速度对于今后改革的战略取向极为重要。
The author believes that the most fundamental factor that restricts the reform of China’s economic system is population, employment, and inflation. Judging from the ten-year reform of China, this is an invisible hand that has distorted many good reform measures. Therefore, in the 1990s, China’s reform must make strategic choices based on population, employment and the reality of inflation. Starting from China’s specific national conditions, it is impossible neither to lose unemployment nor to inflation. It is neither possible to allow large numbers of unemployed people nor to withstand high inflation. For this reason, we can only go one middle way: We recognize both unemployment and modest inflation, that is, a certain level of unemployment coexists with a certain level of inflation. This is a last resort and indispensable choice. The author believes that the key here is a “degree” of determination. The determination of “degree” is actually linked to the pace of development of the national economy. Determining an appropriate pace of development is crucial to the strategic orientation of future reforms.