论文部分内容阅读
纤维板作为重要的林业产品,其期货的价格发现功能,对林产品企业合理计划生产规模、投资者科学分配资金投向具有指导作用。本文先后将格兰杰因果检验等统计方法运用到实证分析中,对2013年12月9日至2016年6月27日纤维板的周结算价进行检验。结果表明:从长期来看,均衡关系存在于纤维板的期货价格与现货价格之间,且期货价格对现货价格的主导作用呈单向影响。因此,本文认为我国纤维板期货虽然上市时间较短,但价格发现功能已经开始发挥作用。
As an important forestry product, the price discovery function of fiber futures plays a guiding role in the rational planning of production scale of forest products enterprises and the investors’ scientific distribution of funds. In this paper, we apply the statistical methods such as Granger causality test to the empirical analysis, and test the weekly settlement prices of fiberboard from December 9, 2013 to June 27, The results show that in the long run, the equilibrium relationship exists between the futures price of fiberboard and the spot price, and the leading role of futures price on the spot price is one-way. Therefore, this paper argues that although the time of listing of fiberboard futures in our country is short, the function of price discovery has begun to play a role.