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经历了“东亚奇迹”、亚洲金融危机和美国金融危机的东亚需要一个新的经济增长突破口。本文在前人研究的基础上,构建东亚样本国家面板数据模型进行实证研究,检验贸易、投资和产业发展对经济增长的贡献作用。分析得出,21世纪后危机时代,靠出口贸易带来经济增长奇迹的时代已经过去,外部需求减少和产业结构趋同是东亚国家首要解决的问题。为了摆脱困境,东亚国家要依靠产业结构优化发展,一方面将劳动力转移到服务业,另一方面利用外资加快实现产业结构高级化,促进产业结构升级转型。
East Asia, experiencing “East Asian Miracle ”, the Asian financial crisis and the U.S. financial crisis, needs a new breakthrough in economic growth. Based on the previous studies, this paper constructs a panel data model of East Asian countries for empirical research to test the contribution of trade, investment and industrial development to economic growth. The analysis shows that the era of economic growth brought by export trade has come to an end in the post-crisis era of the 21st century. Decreasing external demand and industrial structure convergence are the primary problems to be solved by East Asian countries. In order to get out of their predicament, East Asian countries must rely on the optimization of their industrial structure to shift their workforce to service industries. On the other hand, they should speed up the process of upgrading their industrial structure and promote the upgrading of their industrial structure by utilizing foreign investment.