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分析了APTS环境下的公交服务特性、乘客出行特性及其相互作用关系。采用多智能体建模方法,对信息条件下乘客的认知方式以及出行行为规则进行了建模,同时构建了模拟公交营运服务过程的仿真模型。基于服务客体对于服务系统的感知及其行为演化,提出了公交服务可靠性测度模型和方法。以上海49路公交线为背景进行了服务可靠性分析,仿真结果显示:相比传统指标而言,提出的感知候车时间与可靠性因子能够更为真实的反应乘客对于公交服务可靠性的感知;运能饱和的情况下,公交服务可靠性对供需匹配状况的敏感度上升迅速;运能非饱和状况下,营运当中合理地采取准点措施,可显著提升公交服务可靠性。
The service characteristics, passenger travel characteristics and their interaction in APTS environment are analyzed. The multi-agent modeling method is used to model the passenger’s cognitive mode and travel behavior rules under the condition of information. At the same time, a simulation model to simulate the bus service operation process is constructed. Based on the perception and behavior evolution of service object to service system, this paper proposes a model and method of bus service reliability measurement. The service reliability analysis is carried out based on Shanghai 49 bus line. The simulation results show that compared with the traditional indexes, the perceived waiting time and reliability factor can reflect the passenger perception of bus service reliability more truly. In the case of saturated transport, the sensitivity of bus service reliability to the matching of supply and demand increases rapidly. Under the condition of non-saturation of transport capacity, the measures of punctuality can be adopted reasonably in operation, which can significantly improve the reliability of bus service.