随着经济社会的发展,内蒙古废水排放日益增多,过量的废水排放会导致生态系统的衰退,最终影响到人类自身的生存环境和安全,因此,合理地预测出废水排放量对于控制废水的排放具有重要意义.应用系统动力学的模型和方法构建了内蒙古废水排放系统,通过参数的设定定量地预测出2016年到2025年内蒙古废水排放情况.预测结果显示:在9%的工业废水治理累计投资增长率情况下2016年到2025年内蒙古废水排放总量逐年增加,但是增加速度有所放缓,2025年废水排放总量达到13.22亿吨;生活污水排放量逐年增加,2025年达到12.03亿吨;工业废水排放量逐年下降,2025年下降到1.18亿吨.如果要使得工业废水排放量下降,需要每年的工业废水治理累计投资增长率至少为6%. With the development of economy and society, the discharge of wastewater in Inner Mongolia is increasing day by day. Excessive discharge of wastewater leads to the decline of ecosystems, which ultimately affects the living environment and safety of human beings. Therefore, it is reasonable to predict that the discharge of wastewater has the It is significant.Using the model and method of system dynamics, the wastewater discharge system in Inner Mongolia was constructed and the wastewater discharge in Inner Mongolia was predicted quantitatively from 2016 to 2025 by the parameter setting.The results showed that the total investment in the treatment of 9% industrial wastewater Under the condition of growth rate, the total amount of wastewater discharge in Inner Mongolia will increase year by year from 2016 to 2025, but the rate of increase will slow down. The total discharge of waste water will reach 1,322 million tons by 2025; the discharge of domestic sewage will increase year by year, reaching 1.203 billion tons by 2025; Industrial wastewater emissions have been declining year by year and have dropped to 118 million tons by 2025. The cumulative annual growth rate of industrial wastewater treatment needs to be at least 6% if emissions of industrial wastewater are to be reduced.