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本文运用协整理论和误差修正模型,对湖北省1986～2010年的国内生产总值与旅游收入的关系的分析表明:从长期来看,湖北省旅游产业总收入每增加一个百分点,国内生产总值增加大约0.46个百分点。从误差修正模型中可以看出,当短期波动偏离长期均衡时,系统将以0.05的调整力度将系统从非均衡状态拉回到均衡状态。
In this paper, using the cointegration theory and error correction model, an analysis of the relationship between the GDP of 1986 and 2010 in Hubei Province and tourism revenue shows that in the long run, for every 1% increase in the total revenue of the tourism industry in Hubei Province, the gross domestic product The value increased by about 0.46 percentage points. From the error correction model, we can see that when the short-term fluctuations deviate from the long-term equilibrium, the system will pull the system back from the unbalanced state to the equilibrium state with a strength of 0.05.