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本文构建了带有时变转换概率的马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归模型,并应用该模型研究了我国财政政策对产业结构优化升级的动态性影响。研究结果发现:(1)在经济衰退区制内,以增加财政支出为主要操作工具、减少税收为辅的宽松型财政政策,结合降低投资性支出占比、提高科技支出占比、降低营业税和增值税占比的财政政策操作组合,更利于产业结构优化。(2)在经济高涨区制内,以增加税收为主要操作工具、减少财政支出为辅的紧缩型财政政策,结合提高科技支出占比和教育支出占比、提高增值税占比和所得税占比的财政政策操作组合,更利于产业结构优化。(3)在经济平稳区制内,以减少财政支出为主要操作工具、增加税收为辅的紧缩型财政政策,结合提高教育支出占比和一般公共服务支出占比、提高增值税占比和消费税占比的财政政策操作组合,更利于产业结构优化。
In this paper, a Markov Regression vector autoregressive model with time-varying transition probability is constructed, and the model is used to study the dynamic impact of China’s fiscal policy on the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure. The results of the study are as follows: (1) Within the system of recession, we should increase the expenditure proportion of science and technology, reduce the sales tax and reduce the proportion of investment in science and technology by using the fiscal expenditure as the main operating tool and reducing the tax-supplemented fiscal policy. The proportion of value-added tax fiscal policy operation portfolio, but also conducive to the optimization of industrial structure. (2) Within the zone of economic boom, with the increase of tax revenue as the main operating tool and the reduction of fiscal expenditure as the supplement to the tightening fiscal policy, the proportion of the proportion of science and technology expenditures and education expenditure should be increased to increase the proportion of value-added tax and income tax The combination of fiscal policy operations, but also conducive to the optimization of industrial structure. (3) In a stable economic zone, a tightening fiscal policy with fiscal expenditures as the main operating tool and supplemented by tax increases will be implemented to increase the proportion of VAT and consumption tax in combination with the increase in the proportion of education expenditure and the proportion of general public service expenditures, Proportion of the fiscal policy operation portfolio, but also conducive to the optimization of industrial structure.