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利用东海区渔业资源动态监测资料、采用基于Bayes方法的Pella-Tomlinson模型对东海区小黄鱼(Pseudosciaenapolyactis)渔业资源动态进行了科学评析,同时,在不同渔业政策选择下,对2004-2020年的资源量与渔获量进行了预测模拟研究。研究结果显示:东海区小黄鱼渔业资源的环境容纳量K为394 514 t;内禀增长率r为1.146;1991年的资源生物量为338 493 t、尔后持续上升到1994年的370 923 t。1994年以后又持续下降,到2003年下降到最低值111 253 t;最大持续产量(Maximum sustainable yield,MSY)为107 806 t左右;支持MSY所需的渔业资源生物量为197 503 t;支持MSY所需的捕捞努力量为441 097 6网次;当前资源量与环境容纳量K的比值为0.282,即当前资源量已不足原始资源量的30%;若2004年以后使用0.4的捕捞死亡系数,该渔业资源可以实现持续最优利用。
Based on the dynamic monitoring data of fishery resources in the East China Sea, the Pella-Tomlinson model based on the Bayes method was used to evaluate the dynamics of fishery resources of Pseudosciaenapolyactis in the East China Sea. At the same time, under different fishery policy options, And catches were predicted and simulated. The results showed that the environmental capacity of small yellow croaker fishery in the East China Sea was 394 514 t, the intrinsic rate of increase was 1.146, and the resource biomass of 338 493 t in 1991 was increased to 370 923 t in 1994. After 1994, it continued to decline, dropping to a minimum of 111 253 t by 2003; the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) was 107,806 t; the biomass of fishery resources required to support MSY was 197,503 t; MSY The required fishing effort is 441,097,6 net; the ratio of current resources to environmental capacity K is 0.282, which means that the current resources are less than 30% of the original resources; if the fishing mortality factor of 0.4 is used after 2004, The fishery resources can be sustained and optimal utilization.